Rubric : Editorial - FruiTrop - n° 156 - 2008 May - p.1
Keywords : Food produce / World
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L'impression qui prévaut à la clôture de Fruit Logistica est celle d'une réussite. Le salon se professionnalise et s'étend, confirmant année après année son succès planétaire. C'est l'offre des Amériques qui a fait l'événement et pas seulement avec la banane, sujet pourtant omniprésent.
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The December average of 137c/cbft Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) crowned an extraordinary second half of the year for the specialised reefer business: as well as being the month with the highest recorded TCE average for 2006, the December figure lifted the annual TCE average for the larger segment to 66.5 c/cbft, some 4.5 c/cbft above last year's final.
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Had a couple of owners paid more attention to supply and demand at the beginning of the month and fixed accordingly, the Spot market average for October may well have rivalled that of September. Although the market did respond mid-month, by the end of October it had weakened again as vessels that had broken lay-up in the Mediterranean appeared at Cristobal. Coupled with this the Ecuadorian exit price increased, stifling fixing activity by the traders.
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Climatologically September 2006 was the warmest September in Northern Europe since records began; it was also the hottest September reefer charter market on record, with the monthly average above even that of the equivalent month in 2004. If rates in the final quarter of 2006 average at similar levels to those achieved in 2004, the 2006 annual rates average will be superior to that of 2005.
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Laying up 15-20 vessels in June and July paid dividends to reefer owners as vessel supply tightened throughout August and the reefer charter market reached a fluid equilibrium, and subsequently a solid base on which to build into the autumn for the all-important Period business. This was achieved despite a reduction in volumes of ‘off-season' staple citrus volumes from Argentina and South Africa and heavily increased competition from the box lines at both sources
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June delivered more bad news to the specialised reefer sector – if it hadn't been clear to operators of vintage tonnage at the end of May that they should have taken the lay up option, by the end of week 26 those same operators may have had a few regrets. What banana chartering did take place was fixed by the majors on modern tonnage at TC rate equivalents that could not be matched by box rates on older vessels. At the beginning of July it looked as if the trend might continue throughout the summer
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The foundation for the resurgence of the reefer sector in the past three years has been the performance of the Spot market in the second quarter of the year. Although with the exception of 2006 Q1 Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) values have been successively higher each year since 2001 it has been the second peak in May that has provided the biggest difference in annual average returns. So what happened this year? Why should the May Spot market have returned so much less compared to the 2003-2005 period? What, if any, are the implications
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Owners' optimism of a prolonged peak season and soft landing into June at the start of the month had evaporated by week 17 into the realisation that this year was not going to be dissimilar to all the others!
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Following what can best be described as an average start to the year, the charter market gathered momentum rapidly throughout March to peak in the penultimate week of the month.
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While at 66c/cbft and 75c/cbft the February average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) returns on the reefer charter market for large and small tonnage respectively are significantly higher than the respective January figures, they do match last year's equivalents—influenced by an unexpected oversupply of bananas and a shortage of tonnage
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Although January was not the spectacular start to 2006 some had been expecting after last year, neither was it a disaster. Although average Time Charter Equivalent returns for the vessels that were fixed were admittedly significantly lower than in 2005, it should also be remembered that January last year was the exception rather than the rule. The equivalent Reefer Trends' figures for January 2002, 2003 and 2004 of 37c/cbft, 38c/cbft and 41c/cbft respectively put the January 2006 performance into perspective. It will be the February figures that will give a more accurate indication of market performance as demand for capacity tightens – if there truly is overcapacity it will be the next three months of the peak season when it becomes evident.
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A disappointing 12 months for the Spot market operators ended on a relatively sour note with the shortage of bananas continuing to have a negative influence on the charter market. High bunkers continued to have a negative impact on yields – while the Time Charter Equivalent returns on modern tonnage continues to rise, the Spot market operators are hoping that deregulation of the EU banana market will lead to a rise in the volume of bananas shipped and therefore greater demand for specialised reefer capacity
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It was the best of months, it was the worst of months... while activity on the Spot market for larger units remained minimal at historically low Time Charter Equivalent yields, the majority of Period business was finalised at increases between of 10-20% on last year's contracts. Owners and operators have seemingly realised the market equity value of modern tonnage – while Spot market behaviour in the past has proved to be a valuable barometer of Period market sentiment, its relevance to the 12-month banana business in particular (high quality modern tonnage) can now be questioned
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